News & insights

The Lancet Global Health has published the article ‘Measuring the impact of global research and development investment in product development partnerships: a case study on return on investment in antimalarial drug development’ (Vol 14 March 2026) - based on health impact modelling by CEPA’s Christian von Drehle and Oliver Bubb-Humfryes.

The article assesses the return on investment from a portfolio of drugs developed by Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) – a Product Development Partnership (PDP) for antimalarial medicines. PDPs are non-profit organisations that bridge the gap between the need for new treatments for poverty-related diseases and the resources available to develop them, leveraging a mix of public, philanthropic, multilateral, and private sector funding.

CEPA’s analysis of the health impact of a portfolio of MMV-supported antimalarial drugs was adapted by contributors from Imperial College London, MMV, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, and the London School of Economics and Political Science, to assess the benefit-cost ratio and internal rate of return from US$2·3 billion of investments made between 2000 and 2023.

It found that the antimalarial drugs developed and launched with the support of MMV averted an estimated 1·6 million deaths and 87 million disability-adjusted life-years. The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for the base scenario was 52·13% and the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) 12·99. This means that for every $1 invested in antimalarial drug R&D returns $13 to society. The substantial IRR and BCR generated by investment in antimalarial drug development suggest that the PDP model has a pivotal role to play in global health.